The Fate of Jhapa, Morang, Sunsari – Statistical Analysis

The protests in southern plains of Nepal erupted after the three ruling parties made their decision to demarcate Nepal into 6 federal states. It continued even after the seventh state was added since it did not address their grievances. The major objection by parties based in Terai to the proposed federal map was that Jhapa, Sunsari, and Morang should be part of state 2. The protests claimed more than 41 lives and has made life miserable for most residents in Terai and later even in Kathmandu.

In this article, I analyze the population composition by identity in three districts (Jhapa, Sunsari, and Morang) and compare it with those of state 1 and 2. Although there are 131 castes in Nepal according to Census of 2011, I categorized these numerous castes into 10 major ethnic groups* (see Appendix for more). The latter will be used as a measure of identity for comparison. Let us put demands of Madhesis, past agreements, and decision of ruling parties aside for a moment. This article will strictly deploy a statistical approach to this analysis.

Problem

Demand by Madhesi Parties: Jhapa, Morang, and Sunsari should be included in State 2

Demand by Three Ruling Parties: Jhapa, Morang, and Sunsari should remain in State 1

Clarification & Intent of This Analysis

It should be clarified that by performing this analysis, I do not suggest that the states in Nepal should be demarcated on the basis of ethnic groups alone. This is simply a statistical exercise to create more transparency and close the information gap. In fact, The first point of 16 point agreement between four major parties reads,

1. The Federal Democratic Republic of Nepal will have eight provinces based on five criteria of identity and four criteria of capability.

The political parties of Nepal have decided to demarcate federal boundaries on the basis of identity and capability. The parties based in Terai demanded two plains only states, consisting of 20 districts. It should be noted that this is different than demanding two states with just homogeneous Madhesi population. In other words, the parties in Terai demanded two states that consists of plains only, irrespective of the ethnic groups living in those states. This is an important distinction and should be highlighted before proceeding.

Composition of Ethnic Groups in Jhapa, Morang, and Sunsari (By District)

The bar graph below shows the population of major ethnic groups in each of the three districts.

Composition of Ethnic Groups in Jhapa, Morang, and Sunsari (Composite)

The bar graph below shows the combined population of major ethnic groups in the three districts.

Composition of Madhesis & Non-Madhesis in Jhapa, Morang, and Sunsari (Composite)

The bar graph below shows the combined population of Madhesis** & Non-Madhesis, including unknown (ethnic groups – Other, Unknown) in each of the three districts. See Appendix for definition of Madhesis & non-Madhesis.

Madhesis are outnumbered by non-Madhesis in Jhapa. In Morang, the population of Madhesis is about 60,000 lower than Non-Madhesis and 70,000 of the rest are classified as “Unknown” since they belong to ethnic group “Unknown” or “Other”. In  Sunsari, Madhesis outnumber non-Madhesis by 74,000.

Composition of Ethnic Groups in State 1 (Current) vs State 1 (Demand)

Please see “Misconceptions About Federalism in Nepal” if you need a reference to federal map and understand which districts are currently included in State 1 and State 2.

State 1(Current)

The bar graph below shows the combined population of major ethnic groups in State 1 (current). Jhapa, Morang, and Sunsari are included in State 1 (current).

State 1(Demand)

The bar graph below shows the combined population of major ethnic groups in State 1 (demand). Jhapa, Morang, and Sunsari are NOT included in State 1 (demand).

It should be noted that more than 2.5 million are removed in State 1 (demanded) vs State 1 (current). A detailed discussion is included below, see “Who is Affected by This Debate?”.

Composition of Ethnic Groups in State 2 (Current) vs State 2 (Demand)

State 2(Current)

The bar graph below shows the combined population of major ethnic groups in State 2 (current). Jhapa, Morang, and Sunsari are NOT included in State 2 (current).

State 2(Demand)

The bar graph below shows the combined population of major ethnic groups in State 2 (demand). Jhapa, Morang, and Sunsari are included in State 2 (demand).

It should be noted that more than 2.5 million are added in State 2 (demanded) vs State 2 (current). A detailed discussion is included below, see “Who is Affected by This Debate?”.

Comparison of Ethnic Groups in State 2, and Jhapa, Morang, and Sunsari

This table shows the population of ethnic groups in state 2 (current), state 2 (demand), and the total population in three districts (Jhapa, Sunsari, and Morang).

Who is Affected by This Debate?

In the table above, the rightmost column shows the affected population in Jhapa, Morang, and Sunsari. More than 2.5 million Nepalis live in these three districts, constituting of about 700,000 Brahmin-Chhetri, 471,000 Terai Janajati, 463,000 Hill/Mntn Janajati, 306,000 Terai/Madhesi, 160,000 Muslim, 110,000 Hill Dalits, 104,000 Terai Dalits, 86,000 Newars, and other groups.

Take Our Poll

I do not want to make any conclusions, my intent was simply to present this data and let you decide which districts should be included in state 1 or 2.

Please take this Public Poll – The Fate of Jhapa, Sunsari, Morang and offer your public opinion to our leaders.

Appendix

* 131 castes were classified into 10 major ethnic groups based on this scholarly document, “Caste, Ethnic and Regional Identity in Nepal“, accessed via USAID website.

** 10 major ethnic groups were classified as either “Madhesi”, “Non-Madhesi”, and “Unknown” based on this table.

Data Analysis by: Madhesi Youth

Data Source: Nepal’s Central Bureau of Statistics.

Dataset: “Part II : Social Characteristics Tables (Caste/Ethnicity, Mother Tongue and Second Language)” [pdf].

I have taken the liberty of extracting pertinent data from this PDF document into a user-friendly spreadsheet format. If you would like to perform your own data analysis, you are welcome to use this dataset.

Download – Federalism in Nepal – Fate of Eastern & Western Districts [Google Spreadsheet], courtesy of Madhesi Youth.

[Disclaimer: This analysis and its deficiencies are mine and does not reflect the official stance of Madhesi Youth organization.]